A large measure of divergence in the performance of global currencies against the US dollar was evident in March, clearly as a result of key US economic data sets sending out conflicting signals – a trend that has continued to baffle capital markets over the past two years.

This year’s national budget, tabled in Parliament on 21 February, will probably be best remembered for the wide-ranging differences of opinion on National Treasury’s decision to tap into the country’s foreign exchange reserves. 

FEBRUARY is always a big political and economic month in South Africa. The SONA is the speech that outlines the government’s political priorities for the year.

Homeowners would have been relieved at the resumption of a downward trend in the consumer price index (CPI), which dropped from 5.9% in October to 5.5% in November. Motorists can also look forward to some savings in the New Year, with lower petrol and diesel prices having been announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.

South Africa celebrates 30 years of democracy in 2024. At the same time, the country goes to elections which may see the ruling ANC voted out of power or forced into a national coalition. 

JUSTICE MALALA outlines the main political and economic trends for the year ahead.

During October, the annualised rate of consumer inflation rose marginally to 5.9% (from 5.4% in September), but there should be no need for alarm over any further significant increases in the general price level. It should be noted that October was a difficult month for the rand/US dollar exchange rate, with the average hitting a level of marginally above R19. 

The closer South Africa gets to the national election of 2024 the louder the political noise will get. Many voters will be entertained, horrified, and entranced by politicians making outlandish and unachievable promises, shouting at each other, pushing for space to talk, shoving others aside, posing with babies, and generally begging for attention. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided some cheer to South Africa by raising the country’s GDP growth projection for 2024 to 1.8%.  A feature of the IMF’s latest global economic outlook, published in October, is the superior economic growth rates that are expected for emerging markets, relative to the advanced economies.

OVER the next few months there will be much snarling and sniping at the opposition parties which have signed up to the Democratic Alliance-initiated ‘moonshot pact’, now formally renamed the Multi-Party Charter for SA. 

The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank not to raise interest rates again has provided a candidate for “good news item of the year”.